One Test, five days, and a series that cannot be separated. South Africa beat Australia by an innings after Australia won the opener by 214 runs, so the finale at Newlands in Cape Town decides who takes the trophy. The reigning World Test Champions bring momentum and a recent record at this ground. Australia bring a returning all-rounder and a pace attack that can win a game in a session. This guide covers the match details, how the series got here, conditions, team news, the main betting markets, how to read the odds, and a prediction.
Match Details
A drawn Test would also leave the series level, which is why the draw market matters in this match.
| Detail | Information |
| Match | South Africa vs Australia, 3rd Test of 3 |
| Dates | Tuesday 27 October to Saturday 31 October 2026 |
| Start | 10:30 AM local time each day (2:00 PM IST) |
| Venue | Newlands Cricket Ground, Cape Town |
| Captains | Temba Bavuma (South Africa), Pat Cummins (Australia) |
| Series | Level at 1-1 |
How the Series Reached a Decider
The two Tests so far could hardly have been more different:
- 1st Test, Durban: Australia won by 214 runs. Matthew Renshaw scored 190 and 82, and Josh Hazlewood took a career-best 6 for 49 in South Africa’s second innings.
- 2nd Test, Gqeberha: South Africa won by an innings and 31 runs. After sliding to 97 for 5, the hosts reached 425 for 9 declared, built on Bavuma’s 179 and quick runs from Marco Jansen (85) and Simon Harmer (82). Australia were bowled out for 99, then fell short even though Travis Head hit 121 in the follow-on.
South Africa also won the preceding ODI series 2-1. The Durban defeat was the first of Bavuma’s captaincy, and the Gqeberha win answered it in emphatic style.
Newlands Record and Conditions
Newlands sits beneath Table Mountain and has a long history of pace-friendly Tests. Since 2020, fast bowlers have taken 84 wickets at the ground and spinners only nine, with the quicks averaging 24.06 and the spinners 54.50. South Africa picked Keshav Maharaj in each of those matches, so the spin figures say as much about the surface as the selection.
Head-to-head at the venue is closer than the overall numbers suggest:
- Australia have won 10 of their 14 Tests at Newlands.
- South Africa have won three of the last four meetings there, including by 322 runs in 2018.
- Australia’s most recent win came by 245 runs in 2014.
- South Africa have alternated wins and losses in their last five Tests at the ground.
Weather can change plans in Cape Town, so check the forecast and the pitch report before the toss.
Team News
South Africa lost Anrich Nortje, who is out for the rest of the series with a groin injury. Gerald Coetzee, Dane Paterson, and Corbin Bosch are the leading replacement options, and Maharaj is also available. Kagiso Rabada returned in Gqeberha and took six wickets, and Jansen has 10 wickets in the series.
Australia have Cameron Green back after an abdominal strain, although he is not expected to bowl, and Josh Inglis is fit again after a broken finger. Steve Smith battled a stiff neck in the second Test but is expected to play. The big selection question is Scott Boland against Nathan Lyon, since Boland took 5 for 81 last time.
The possible XIs, as listed by Cricket Australia:
- South Africa: Aiden Markram, Marques Ackerman, David Bedingham, Temba Bavuma (c), Matthew Breetzke, Ryan Rickelton (wk), Wiaan Mulder, Marco Jansen, Simon Harmer, Kagiso Rabada, Dane Paterson
- Australia: Travis Head, Matthew Renshaw, Marnus Labuschagne, Steve Smith, Cameron Green, Alex Carey (wk), Josh Inglis, Pat Cummins (c), Mitchell Starc, Scott Boland, Josh Hazlewood
Both lists are predictions, and teams are confirmed at the toss.
Players to Watch
A few names could shape the match and the markets:
- Kagiso Rabada (South Africa): He has taken at least three wickets in five of his last six innings at Newlands and holds 52 career wickets there.
- Marco Jansen (South Africa): His 85 and five-wicket haul in the last Test made him a two-way threat.
- Temba Bavuma (South Africa): His 179 in Gqeberha showed his value after an early collapse.
- Mitchell Starc (Australia): He has 16 wickets at 14.8 across his last three Tests.
- Travis Head (Australia): He made 121 in the second innings last time and has scored well at the top of the order.
- Matthew Renshaw (Australia): He leads the series with 295 runs, though 272 of them came in the first Test.
- Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith (Australia): Labuschagne has scored 127 runs in the series, and Smith 83, so a big innings from either would help Australia.
Betting Tips by Market
Markets worth considering, along with the thinking behind each:
- Match result: South Africa have the form and a good recent record at the venue. Australia have an attack that can bowl out any side. The draw is possible if weather interferes, so compare all three prices.
- Top bowler: The pace-friendly numbers at Newlands point to the quicks. Rabada, Jansen, Starc, Hazlewood, and Cummins are the main candidates, and Boland adds a different option if he plays.
- Top batter: Bavuma, Markram, and Rickelton stand out for South Africa. Head, Renshaw, and Green are the leading Australian options, while Smith and Labuschagne offer longer prices.
- First-innings lead: Conditions that favour the new ball make the first innings important, so this market can reward a read on the toss and early movement.
- Team totals: With seam movement likely, low scores are possible. Check the line against recent scores, such as Australia’s 99 in Gqeberha.
- Player to score a century: Prices can look attractive for Smith or Labuschagne after a long wait, though recent form argues for caution.
No tip guarantees a result. Every bet carries risk, and form, injuries, weather, and the toss can change the picture quickly.
Reading the Match Odds
Test matches have three outcomes, so the maths differs from a limited-overs game. Decimal odds show the total return per unit staked, and dividing 1 by the price gives the implied probability. On 24 October, one Australian bookmaker listed South Africa at about 1.86 to win, which implies a chance of around 54 percent. That price moves with team news and the toss, so live odds on our platform may differ.
Add up the implied chances of all three outcomes and the total will exceed 100 percent, because bookmakers include a margin. A bet makes sense only when your own estimate beats the price by a clear amount.
Match Prediction
South Africa are slight favourites. They have won three of the last four Tests against Australia at Newlands, their attack is in form, and they know how to exploit the conditions. Bavuma’s side also showed in Gqeberha that they can recover from a poor start.
Australia are close behind. They have lost three of their last six Tests, but they have not lost consecutive Tests since 2023, and Green’s return gives the batting a boost. Their bowlers can dominate a seam-friendly pitch as well.
Three factors could decide the match:
- The toss and the first session, when the new ball does most of its damage.
- Whether Australia’s top order can handle Rabada and Jansen.
- How South Africa replaces Nortje.
Expect a tight contest, with South Africa holding a slight edge.
Mistakes to Avoid
Test betting rewards patience. Watch out for these common errors:
- Betting before the toss, the pitch report, and the confirmed XIs.
- Ignoring the draw as a possible result.
- Backing Australia only because of their overall Newlands record.
- Chasing losses with bigger stakes.
- Putting too much of the budget on one market.
- Betting when tired, especially during the late-night sessions.
Conclusion
This is the kind of Test that fans remember. Two heavyweight sides are level at 1-1, the pitch favours bowlers, and each team has a clear route to victory. South Africa have the form and the recent record at Newlands. Australia have the experience and a pace attack that can turn a match in an hour. A calm approach works best. Wait for the toss and the confirmed teams, compare the odds with your own view, and keep stakes modest.
Our website, Betbricks7, covers cricket previews and betting tips throughout the season, so visit betbricks7cricket.com to follow the rest of the series.
FAQs
When does the South Africa vs Australia 3rd Test start?
The Test begins on Tuesday, 27 October 2026, at 10:30 AM local time. That is 2:00 PM IST at Newlands in Cape Town.
What is the series score?
The series is level at 1-1. Australia won in Durban by 214 runs, and South Africa won in Gqeberha by an innings and 31 runs.
Who is favoured to win?
South Africa hold a slight edge on form and their record at Newlands. Australia remain dangerous with their pace attack.
Is Anrich Nortje playing?
No, Nortje is out for the rest of the series with a groin injury. Several fast bowlers are in line to replace him.
Is betting on cricket risky?
Yes, results are uncertain, and losses can happen quickly. Set a budget, stay within it, and play only if you are 18 or older.